Market Update – October 2021

OCTOBER   2 0 2 1    | V O L .   1






T h e  o f f i c i a l  p u b l i c a t i o n  o f  t h e  C e n t u r y  2 1  E x e c u t i v e s  R e a l t y  L t d .

O k a n a g a n  S h u s w a p



W R I T T E N  B Y  B I L L   H U B B A R D   O W N E R | B R O K E R

The most common questions I get asked today  are,  "When is the  bubble going to burst?"  or "what's  going to happen in the  market?".  In the  last few stats reports, I mentioned that  the  stats tell me  that  the  Real Estate Market  in the  Okanagan Shuswap is going to level off at a very strong market. That is what  happened. How do I know that? First, I know that,  unlike the  stock  market, the  real estate market changes very slowly. The quickest we could see  a complete turnaround in a market is about 6 months. Next, in order for that  turnaround to start the  inventory has  to rise to a level where buyers have  multiple choices to consider offering on ie: it becomes a buyer's market. A lot of Realtors don't even  know what  that  is because they have  yet to see one. Lastly, the  absorption rate  has  to drop below 20%. It presently has  levelled off to around 40 to 50%, depending on the  zone  in the  Okanagan Shuswap.


W R I T T E N  B Y  B I L L  H U B B A R D


Every year, inventory starts to rise in the first quarter of the  year. It peaks in the  summer and  begins to fall in the fall season to start the  cycle over again in the  winter; except this year. In all 3 zones the  inventory has  been flat as a pancake. To illustrate this point even more, compare the  graphs for new listings to the  inventory graphs. They illustrate that  the  new listings rose in the  first quarter like they always do.

However,  the  inventory did not  follow like it always does. What does this mean? It means that  the  demand still strongly outweighs the  supply. People outside the  Okanagan Shuswap are still trying their best to move  here and buy or rent  something.

I had  a friend tell me  that  Robert Kiosaki is stating that  the  biggest market crash in history is coming to the  stock  market, gold, silver and bitcoins. I can  tell you that  I know nothing about these markets. I can also tell you that  Robert Kiosaki's main goal is to sell books and  seminars. Saying the  markets will maintain doesn't do that  very well. Catastrophe sells much better than steady as you go.  It is interesting that  Realtors who do not  know how to follow and  read statistics are  predicting a crash in the Real Estate market. When  I ask them why,  many  times they will quote data that  has  historically been very poor indicators of what  is going on or they say, "I just feel it in my bones". There  is a professional statement!

As far as the  Okanagan Shuswap Real Estate market is concerned, in order for them to be right the  inventory has to double and  the  absorption has  to drop below 20%. That will change this extreme seller's market into a buyer's market. That may happen but  it is going to take  a while and  right now there are  no statistical indicators that predict that  it is coming.


More Canadians Are Moving to BC Than Anywhere Else in the Country

W R I T T E N  B Y  S T O R E Y S  E D I T O R I A L  T E A M

With its stunning scenery, salt air, and distinct west coast vibe, the appeal of British Columbia (BC) is undeniable. Many fellow Canadians apparently agree.  A new report from  Statistics Canada,

released on September 29, shows that BC experienced the largest net gain in interprovincial migration in the 12-month period ending June 30, 2021. The province’s net interprovincial migration – the difference between residents moving into and out  of a region – was  +34,277 in 2020/21. This marks the largest migration increase in BC in 28 years.

On the other (more affordable) coast, Nova Scotia also experienced a net high migration (+9,949). Neighbouring New Brunswick also experienced a relatively high influx of new residents (+3,887) – some, who  were perhaps swayed by the province’s compelling campaign to encourage Canadians to take advantage of the province’s low home prices. Meanwhile, Newfoundland and Labrador’s interprovincial migration rate at +785.

While BC was  a hot  spot on the relocation front,  the province’s neighbours in the Prairies didn’t fare so well, with Alberta (-11,831), Manitoba (-9,685), and Saskatchewan (-9,410) reporting more residents moving out  than in (and this was  before things really started to go south in Alberta in the pandemic department too).

The pandemic appears to have inspired a re- evaluation of lifestyle and living space, as Canadians packed their bags and set their sights on new provinces like they haven’t in years. According to Stats Can, Canadians are relocating to other provinces at a rate we haven’t seen since the 90s. Naturally, this is fuelled by a remote work culture that has  become the norm. According to Stats Can, Canada’s overall population is struggling to catch up to pre-pandemic numbers, which have been influenced by COVID-related deaths and restrictions on immigration. Not surprisingly, Canada’s

population growth took  a major nosedive in response to the relentless pandemic, with its pace of growth estimated to be +0.5 percent. Marking the slowest growth rate since 1915/16 – during the grips of the First World War – this was  less than half of its 2019/20 growth (+1.2%).

While BC may be an  attractive option in the lifestyle front,  calling the mountain-filled province home doesn’t come cheap — especially when it comes to real estate. After all, it’s no coincidence that Metro Vancouver is the eviction capital of Canada.

Not to put  bad vibes out  there. Here’s to hoping all of the province’s new residents are able to stay… and still save for a rainy day (or in BC’s case, many  rainy days).